The New South Wales (NSW) fertility rate is a key driver of population size, composition and age structure, with impacts for the long-run economic and fiscal position of the State.

The NSW total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to structurally decline over the next 40 years.

This paper sets out reasons why the NSW long-run fertility rate is projected to decline from its 2019-20 level of 1.67 babies per woman to 1.63 by 2032. The paper recommends that the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) utilise a constant long-run TFR assumption of 1.63 from 2032