Towards 2061 - planning for the future

The 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) presents a snapshot of our future State to inform the policies that will continue to make New South Wales the best place to live, work, run a business and raise a family. 

In this Report, we look forward 40 years to 2061 to understand how our State’s population, economy and finances may change based on global and local trends, and current policies.  

The Report examines key long-term challenges associated with an ageing population, a widening fiscal gap between the revenue raised by the government and growing expenditure pressures, and rapid transformation in the economy.

The Report also incorporates the significant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We need to maintain a modern, diversified economy to ensure continued prosperity for generations to come. A strong economy, supported by productivity-raising reform, high-quality services and responsible fiscal management will enable us to build the collective wealth of the people of New South Wales, and create resilience to shocks and uncertainty.

 

Download the latest report

Topics explored in the 2021-22 NSW IGR

Chapter 1

The population of New South Wales in 2061 

Chapter 2

Future shape of the NSW economy

Chapter 3

Housing, home ownership and household savings

Chapter 4

World-class services and infrastructure

Chapter 5

Sustainable
revenue

Chapter 6

Our fiscal
challenge

Key insights from the 2021-22 NSW IGR


NSW
population

Illustration of five people
8.2M
2020

Illustration of eight people
11.5M
2061

People of working age for every person aged 65 years or older

Illustration of four people
3.9
2020

Illustration of two people with arrows pointing to each
2.4
2061



Drivers of NSW
economic growth

A stacked column graph with two sets of data depicting the three drivers of economic growth in NSW; Participation, Population and Productivity. One set of data showing actual figures for 1999-2000 to 2018-19 the other set showing projected data for 2018-19 to 2060-61. The graph showing projected changes will see population and participation decreasing as an economic driver, and productivity increasing.

Contribution to average annual NSW GSP growth

 

 


Participation
rate projection
for NSW

An illustration of three hands
65.3%
2020

61.6%
2061

 

 


Additional new
homes in NSW
required by 2061

An illustration of a house
1.7M
that's one new home for every two existing homes today

 

 

Share of revenue
from state sources
(excl. NGF)

is declining

An illustration of a column graph decreasing across the x axis
61%
2018-19

53%
2060-61

 


Share of total NSW recurrent spending by 2061

An illustrated pie chart showing the figure 38%

Health

Up arrow

from 29% in 2018-19
 

An illustrated pie chart showing the figure 18%

Education

Down arrow

from 22% in 2018-19
 

An illustrated pie chart showing the figure 12%

Transport

Down arrow

from 13% in 2018-19
 


Key fiscal projections in 2061
(as a share of GSP)

Fiscal gap
An illustration of two hands exchanging a dollar
2.6%
(excl. NGF)1

 

Fiscal gap
An illustration of one hand holding a currency note
0.6%
(incl. NGF)
 

Gross debt
An illustration of a pile of coins, one with a % sign on it
133%
(incl. NGF)

 

Net debt
An illustration of a currency note being cut by a pair of scissors
100%
(incl. NGF)

 

1. NSW Generations Fund

Last updated: 10/09/2021